The Weekly Economic & Real Estate Forecast – 07/16/18 to 07/20/18

What I Saw Last Week

Total outstanding Consumer Credit rose by $24.5 billion in May – well above my forecast an increase of $12.4 billion – after increasing by an upwardly revised $10.3 billion (from $9.3 billion) in April.

CC

Of note is that the credit expansion in May was the largest since November 2017 and was fed by sizable increases in both revolving as well as non-revolving credit.

Revolving credit increased by $9.7 billion from April to $1.039 trillion – the largest pickup in revolving credit since November 2017.  Non-revolving credit increased by $14.8 billion to $2.858 trillion – again the largest pickup in non-revolving credit since November 2017.

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.50% in May, with revolving credit increasing at an annual rate of 11.5% and non-revolving credit increasing at an annual rate of 6.25%.

The takeaway from the report is that the surge in credit expansion will serve as a catalyst for a strong pickup in consumer spending that should manifest itself in a strong Q2 GDP number.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose by 0.1% in June with the core rate up by 0.2%.  I had expected to see both the overall rate and core rate up by 0.2%.

CPI

Total CPI was up 2.9% year-over-year, which is the largest 12-month increase since February 2012. Core CPI was up 2.3% year-over-year, versus 2.2% in May.

This substantial increase is a sign of a growing economy, but it’s also a painful development for workers, whose tepid wage gains have failed to keep pace with rising prices.

The takeaway from the report is that consumer inflation is picking up and gives the Federal Reserve the data-based cover it is seeking to continue raising the fed funds rate.

Consumer Sentiment in early July dropped to 97.1 from 98.2 in June – I had forecast a drop to 97.8.

CS

The current Index dropped to 113.9 from 116.5 while the Index of Expectations edged up to 86.4 from 86.3.  Of note is that the July reading for the overall Index is nearly equal to the average in the prior twelve months (97.7).

The takeaways from the report are twofold: (1) it revealed negative concerns about the impact of trade tariffs are rising among the top third of the income distribution, who account for half of consumer spending and (2) consumers under the age of 45 are anticipating the largest income gains since July 2000.

What to Watch for This Week

U.S. Retail Sales was solid in May with a monthly increase of 0.8% and the core rate up by 0.9%.  I expect to see the June numbers show total sales up by 0.5% and core sales (ex-auto) up by 0.3%.

The NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 2 points to 68 in June – mainly due to rising material costs – and I expect to see the July figure tick back up to 69.

U.S. Housing Starts rose 5% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.350 million units.  The June number is likely to show starts drop further to an annual rate of 1.320 million.

U.S. Building Permits dropped 4.6% to an annual rate of 1.301 million units in May and the June figure will likely show some growth with the annual rate rising to 1.330 million.

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The Weekly Economic & Real Estate Forecast – 07/09/18 to 07/13/18

What I Saw Last Week

Total U.S. Construction Spending rose by 0.4% in May – I had forecast an increase of 0.6% – following a revised 0.9% increase (from 1.8%) in April.

CS.png

The May report featured a 0.3% increase in total private construction spending with total public construction up by 0.7%. Private construction spending included an 0.8% increase in residential construction while non-residential construction declined 0.3%. New single-family construction rose 0.8% while new multi-family construction grew 1.6%.

On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 4.5% with public construction spending up 4.7% and private construction spending up 4.4%.

The takeaway from the report is that, when combined with the downward revision for April, construction spending will make a smaller contribution to Q-2 GDP than is currently being forecast.

June Non-Farm Payrolls grew by 213,000 – I had forecast a more modest increase of 195,000. May payrolls were revised up to 244,000 from 223,000 and April payrolls were also revised higher to 175,000 from 159,000.

payrolls

Over the past three months, job gains have averaged an impressive 211,000 per month.

June private sector payrolls increased by 202,000 with May payrolls revised up to 239,000 from 218,000 and April payrolls also revised up to 174,000 from 162,000.

Professional and business services led the way with 50,000 new jobs while manufacturing added 36,000. Health care was up 25,000 and construction gained 13,000. Retail lost 22,000 jobs.

The U.S. Unemployment Rate in June rose to 4.0% from 3.8% in May. I had forecast no change.

Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 23.0% of the unemployed versus 19.4% in May.  The U-6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, was 7.8%, versus 7.6% in May.

U rate

The rise in the unemployment rate is not concerning as it was a function of more than 600,000 Americans joining the work force.

The takeaway from the employment and unemployment reports is that the data, in aggregate, was strong enough to excite the masses about the economic expansion continuing, but not so strong as to ignite any mass hysteria about inflation taking off and the Federal Reserve needing to clamp down fast and hard to contain it.

What to Watch for This Week

Consumer Credit rose by $9.2 billion in April – mainly driven by an expansion in non-revolving credit –  and I anticipate the May number will show further expansion of $12.4 billion.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose by 0.2 in May and I expect to see both the overall rate and core rate 0.2% higher when the June numbers are released.

Consumer Sentiment in early July should have dropped from the final June number of 98.2 to 97.8 on the back of concern over the potential for a trade war.

The Weekly Economic & Real Estate Forecast – 07/02/18 to 07/06/18

What I Saw Last Week

U.S. New Home Sales rose 6.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 689,000 in May – I had forecast the number to come in at 666,000 – from a downwardly revised 646,000 (from 662,000) in April.

NHS

Sales rose 17.9% in the South; were static in the Midwest, dropped 8.7% in the West and were 10% lower in the Northeast. Based on the current sales pace, the inventory of new homes for sale fell to a 5.2-months’ supply, versus 5.5 months in April and 5.4 months in the year-ago period.

The median sales price decreased 3.3% year-over-year to $313,000. The average sales price decreased 2.6% to $378,400.

The takeaway from the report is that there wasn’t any growth in new home sales outside the South region.  That is the largest region for new home sales, though, and where there is a concentration of lower-priced housing markets, which helps explain the year-over-year drop in median and average sale prices.

Case Shiller Index data for April showed the 20-city index up by 6.6%, marginally below my forecast for 6.8%.

CS

While the price gains lost a bit of momentum last month, prices continue to grow faster than both incomes and inflation with half of the housing markets in the country now above their 2006 peaks.

The biggest price gains continue to be concentrated in the West with Seattle seeing a 13.1% annual gain in prices in April compared to a year earlier; Las Vegas prices rose 12.7% and San Francisco saw an 10.9% increase.

The takeaway from this report is that the favorable economy and moderate mortgage rates both continue to support gains in housing.

Consumer Confidence in June dropped to 126.4 from an upwardly revised 128.8 in May – I had forecast a smaller drop to 127.1.

CC

The Present Situation Index checked in at 161.1 versus 161.2 in May while the Expectations Index dropped from 107.2 to 103.2.

The takeaway from the report is that the downturn was driven by a downshift in the Expectations Index, which suggests, according to the Conference Board, that consumers don’t anticipate the economy gaining much momentum in the coming months.

The NAR Pending Home Sales Index for May dropped 0.5% as would be home buyers pulled back from expensive and competitive housing markets.  I had anticipated a 0.8% increase.

PHS

Sales have now fallen on an annual basis for five straight months. Pending home sales are a forward indicator of closed sales in June and July.

Realtors in most of the country continue to describe their markets as highly competitive and fast moving, but without enough new and existing inventory for sale, activity has essentially stalled.

Regionally, pending home sales rose 2% in the Northeast; were up by 2.9% in the Midwest; rose 0.6% in the West abut were down by 3.5% in the South.  All areas were either static pr below levels seen a year ago.

Sales may not see gains in June either, given the drop in applications for mortgages. Mortgage rates haven’t moved much this month, but mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 6% last week compared with the previous week and were just 1% higher than the same week one year ago.

The third, and final, measure of U.S. GDP the first quarter of this year was downwardly revised to 2.0% from the previous estimate of 2.2% – I had expected to see no revision.

GDP

The drop was a function of downward revisions to private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures.

Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.9% versus the second estimate of 1.0% while the change in private inventories subtracted 0.01 percentage points from GDP growth, versus the second estimate, which showed it adding 0.13 percentage points.

Income & Spending both rose in April with incomes up by 0.4% and spending up by a modest 0.2%; I had expected to see both incomes and spending up by 0.4%.

I&S

The increase in personal income was led by a 0.3% increase in wages and salaries and a 1.5% jump in personal dividend income.

In May, the savings rate increased to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in April. Nevertheless, saving remains relatively low from a historical viewpoint. As shown in the graph below, the savings rate has been on a downward path since 2016, as rising consumption was contributing to fueling economic growth. The steady growth of disposable income also boosts the future income expectations, which leads to a higher current consumption and lower savings.

PSR

The takeaway from the report is twofold: Firstly, real PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) was flat, which is likely to prompt some downward revisions to Q2 GDP forecasts and secondly, the price indexes are moving in the direction anticipated by the Fed, which means the Fed is also likely to keep moving the fed funds rate higher as anticipated.

As I had expected, the final Consumer Sentiment number for June was revised down to 98.2 but the drop was more than my forecast for 99.0 (from 99.3).

CSENT

The Current Economic Conditions Index was 116.5, down from the preliminary reading of 117.9 while the Index of Consumer Expectations was 86.3, down from the preliminary reading of 87.4.

The takeaway from the report is that the downshift from the preliminary reading was driven primarily by tariff concerns, yet favorable assessments of jobs and incomes were a mitigating influence that left the overall index little changed from the prior month.

What to Watch for This Week

U.S. Construction Spending rose by 1.8% in April on the back of increased private construction spending. I am looking for the May number show a further increase of 0.6%.

Non-Farm Payrolls in the U.S. rose by 223,000 in May and I expect to see the June figure show the country having added an additional 195,000 new jobs.

The U.S. Unemployment Rate in May was measured at 3.8% and I do not expect to see any change when the June numbers are released.

 

The Weekly Economic & Real Estate Forecast – 06/25/18 to 06/29/18

What I Saw Last Week

The NAHB Housing Market Index for newly-built single-family homes fell two points to 68 in June – I had forecast the index to have remained at 70.

HMI

The decline was due in large part to sharply elevated lumber prices, although sentiment does remain on solid ground.

Improved economic growth, continued job creation and solid housing demand should spur additional single-family construction in the months ahead. However, builders do need access to lumber and other construction materials at reasonable costs in order to provide homes at competitive price points, particularly for the entry-level market where inventory is most needed.

Builders are optimistic about housing market conditions as consumer demand continues to grow. However, they are increasingly concerned that tariffs placed on Canadian lumber and other imported products are hurting housing affordability. Record-high lumber prices have added nearly $9,000 to the price of a new single-family home since January 2017.

All three HMI indexes inched down a single point in June. The index measuring current sales conditions fell to 75, the component gauging expectations in the next six months dropped to 76, and the metric charting buyer traffic edged down to 50.

U.S. Housing Starts rose 5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.35 million units.  I had forecast an increase to 1.323 million.

Starts

Single-family starts increased 3.9% in May, led by a 10.2% increase in the Northeast and a 44.4% surge in the Midwest; however, they declined 3.5% in the South and 0.5% in the West. Multi-unit starts increased 7.5%.

The takeaway from this report is that starts are up 11% in the first 5-months of this year and are now at their highest level since July of 2007.

U.S. Building Permits dropped 4.6% to an annual rate of 1.301 million – I had forecast a drop to 1.343 million.

Permits

Permits for single-family homes were up 11.8% in the Northeast, down 1.6% in the Midwest, down 3.3% in the South (the nation’s largest housing market); and down 3.3% in the West.

The takeaway from the report is that permits — a leading indicator — declined for both single-family units (-2.2%) and multi-unit dwellings (-8.8%), suggesting there might not be follow-on strength for badly needed single-family homes in June.

U.S. Existing Home Sales decreased 0.4% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.43 million units – I had anticipated the figure improve to 5.55 million – from a downwardly revised 5.45 million (from 5.46 million) in April.

EHS

Total sales were 3.0% lower than the same period a year ago and have fallen year-over-year for three straight months.

The median existing home price for all housing types increased 4.9% to an all-time high of $264,800, which was the 75th straight month of year-over-year gains. The median existing single-family home price was $267,500, up 5.2% from a year ago.

The inventory of homes for sale at the end of May increased 2.8% to 1.85 million, yet that is 6.1% lower than the same period a year ago. The inventory of existing homes for sale has fallen year-over-year for 36 consecutive months.

Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, versus 4.2 months a year ago and the 6.0-month supply typically associated with a more balanced market.

The takeaway from the report remains the same: notable supply constraints continue to act as a drag on overall sales. The limited inventory — and the high prices on available inventory — is crimping affordability, particularly for first-time buyers; moreover, all prospective buyers are feeling affordability pressures from rising mortgage rates and home prices rising faster than income.

What to Watch for This Week

U.S. New Home Sales in April dropped 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000.  I am expecting to see the May number rebound and come in at 666,000.

Case Shiller Index data for April is likely to show the 20-city index up by 6.8% year-over-year matching the March number.

Consumer Confidence was measured at 128.0 in May and I anticipate that the June figure will pull back a little to 127.1.

The NAR Pending Home Sales Index for May will likely show some improvement from the 1.3% drop seen in April. Look for the index to have risen by 0.8%.

The third, and final, measure of U.S. GDP the first quarter of this year will show no revision from the 2.2% growth rate previously announced.

Income & Spending both rose in April with incomes up by 0.3% and spending up by 0.6%.  Look for the May number to show both incomes and spending up by 0.4%.

The final Consumer Sentiment number for June will likely be revised down to 99.0 from the preliminary figure of 99.3.

The Weekly Economic & Real Estate Forecast – 06/18/18 to 06/22/18

What I Saw Last Week

Inflation – as measured by the Consumer Price Index – rose by 0.2% in May with the core rate up by 0.2%.  I had forecast total inflation up by 0.3% and the core rate up by 0.2%.

CPI

The increase in total CPI was driven by increases on gasoline (+1.7%) and shelter (+0.3%).  The Core rate was bolstered largely by the shelter index.

On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.8%, versus 2.5% in April. Core CPI was up 2.2%, versus 2.1% in April.

The takeaway from the Consumer Price Index for May is that it validated the 25 basis points rate hike by the FOMC implemented last week (see below) and provides further support for my view that there will be a total of four rate hikes this year.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last Wednesday for the seventh time since the start of the financial crisis. In its monetary policy statement  the central bank raised the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to a range of 1.75%-2%, the highest seen since September of 2008.

FFR

In raising its benchmark interest rate, the Fed cited an economy that is growing at a “solid” rate – an upgrade from its characterization in May of an economy growing at a “moderate” rate.

The most notable change to the Fed’s statement was the elimination of language suggesting that its policy would “for some time” remain accommodative. This “tweak” suggests to me that Fed officials see monetary policy as nearing its neutral rate setting, or the interest rate at which the economy would experience full employment and price stability, which the Fed has defined as 2% inflation.

The Fed’s key short-term rate affects 30-year mortgages and other long-term rates only indirectly as those rates correlate more closely with inflation expectations and the long-term economic outlook.  The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has already climbed from 4.15% to 4.54% since Jan. 1 largely because investors expect federal tax cuts and spending increases to push inflation higher; however, the rate is down from a recent high of 4.66% in late May. The rate hike was already built into mortgage rates.

U.S. Retail Sales rose by 0.8% in May (I had forecast +0.4%) and was revised up to 0.4% (from 0.3%) in April.  Core sales rose 0.9% – well above my forecast for 0.5% – and was revised up to 0.4% (from 0.3%) in April.

Retail Sales

The only two retail categories seeing a decline in sales in May were furniture and home furnishing stores (-2.4%) and sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores (-1.1%).

The largest sales increases were registered for miscellaneous store retailers (+2.7%) and building material, garden equipment, and supplies dealers (+2.4%), which rebounded after the cold/wet month of April.

On a year-over-year basis, total retail sales were up 5.9% in May and up 6.4% when one excluding auto sales.

The takeaway from this report is that consumer spending on goods was strong in May, which will feed expectations for a healthy pickup in second quarter GDP growth.

The early June Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 99.3, marginally higher than my forecast for an increase to 99.0.

Sentiment

The Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 117.9 from 111.8 and the Index of Consumer Expectations dipped to 87.4 from 89.1.

The takeaway from this report is that the Expectations Index declined to its lowest level since the start of the year due to less favorable prospects for the overall economy, which were tied, in part, to higher inflation expectations.

What to Watch for This Week

The NAHB Housing Market Index rose from 68 to 70 in May and I am looking for the June figure to remain at the same level.

U.S. Housing Starts dropped 3.7% in April as multifamily permits contracted fairly substantially.  Look for the May number to improve with starts rising from an annual rate of 1.287 million to 1.323 million.

U.S. Building Permits also fell in April (-1.8%) for similar reasons.  I expect to see further contraction with the annual rate dropping from 1.352 million to 1.343 million.

U.S. Existing Home Sales dropped by 2.5% in April to an annual rate of 5.46 million and I expect to see the May figure improve to 5.55 million.

The Weekly Economic & Real Estate Forecast – 06/11/18 to 06/15/18

What I Saw Last Week

Total Consumer Credit rose by $9.2B in April – below my forecast for an increase of $13.9B – after increasing an upwardly revised $12.3B (from $11.6B) in March.

credit

The growth in April was driven by non-revolving credit, which increased by $7.0B from March to $2851.8B. Revolving credit increased by $2.2B to $1030.7B after decreasing by $1.1B in March.

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.0% in April, with revolving credit increasing at an annual rate of 2.5% and non-revolving credit increasing at an annual rate of 3.0%.

The takeaway from the report is that the increase in consumer credit was the lowest since September 2017, which suggests rising interest rates may have driven consumers to pay down debt and/or tempered their demand for credit.

What to Watch for This Week

Inflation – as measured by the Consumer Price Index – rose by 0.2% in April with the core rate up by 0.1%.  Look for the May numbers to show total inflation up by 0.3% and the core rate 0.2% higher.

U.S. Retail Sales rose by 0.3% in April with core sales also 0.3% higher.  I expect to see the May numbers having risen by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively.

Consumer Sentiment in May were measured at 98.0 and the early June number should show a jump to 99.0.

The Weekly Economic & Real Estate Forecast – 06/04/18 to 06/08/18

What I Saw Last Week

The Case Shiller Index for March showed annualized home price growth for the 20-City Index of 6.8% (I had forecast 6.5%) and matching the previous month.

cs

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco continue to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In March, Seattle led the way with a 13.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 12.4% increase and San Francisco with an 11.3% increase. Twelve of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending March 2018 versus the year ending February 2018.

Looking across various national statistics on sales of new or existing homes, permits for new construction, and financing terms, two figures that stand out are rapidly rising home prices and low inventories of existing homes for sale. Months of supply, which combines inventory levels and sales, is currently at 3.8 months, lower than the levels of the 1990’s, before the housing boom and bust.

Until inventories increase faster than sales, or the economy slows significantly, home prices are likely to continue rising. Compared to the price gains of the last boom in the early 2000’s, things are calmer today. Gains in the National Index peaked at 14.5% in September 2005, more quickly than Seattle is rising now.

Consumer Confidence in May rose to 128.0 – I had forecast a drop to 127.5.

SENT

The Present Situation Index rose from 157.5 to 161.7 and the Expectation Index rose from 104.3 to 105.6.

The takeaway from this report is that consumers’ assessment of current conditions is at a 17-year high, which matches up neatly with the understanding that the unemployment rate is at a 17-year low.

The second estimate for US GDP in Q1 show the economy having expanded at a downwardly revised rate of 2.2% – I had forecast it to have remained at the previously reported 2.3% rate.

GDP

The downward adjustment was mainly due to Private Inventory Investment which was revised lower, such that the change in private inventories contributed only 0.13% to GDP growth in the second estimate versus 0.43% in the advance estimate. Additionally, and likely more importantly, Personal Consumption Expenditure growth was revised down to 1.0% from 1.1%.

The takeaway from the report is that it was a rerun of a bad episode of consumer spending in the first quarter. Therefore, it won’t have any market impact since the “new” news on Q1 GDP is old news!

Income & Spending both rose in April with incomes matching my forecast for an increase of 0.3% and spending outperforming by rising by 0.6% (I had forecast 0.3%).

i&s

Wages and salaries increased 0.4% in April, which was the main driver of the personal income increase.

The takeaway from the report is that real PCE was up 0.4%, leaving it well above the first quarter average growth rate of less than 0.1% and solidifying expectations for stronger GDP growth in the second quarter. Separately, the firming trend in the price indexes should contribute to an internal belief at the Federal Reserve that there is scope for three rate hikes in 2018.

The NAR Pending Home Sales Index for April fell by 1.3% even as I had forecast a 0.7% increase.

PSI

Pending sales were 2.1% lower when compared to April of 2017 and represents the fourth straight month of annual declines.

I would conjecture that the contraction in signed contracts was more a function of inventory constraints and not due to rising mortgage rates. Additionally, weakening affordability is going hand-in-hand with short supply, especially at the lower end of the market. As home prices continue to rise, potential buyers have less and less wiggle room in their wallets.

Regionally, pending home sales in the Northeast were unchanged for the month and 2.1% lower than a year ago.  In the Midwest, sales dropped 3.2% and were 5.1% lower than April 2017.  Pending sales in the South declined 1.0% in April but were 2.7% higher than last April and sales in the West dropped 0.4% and are down 4.6% from a year ago.

Non-Farm Payrolls in May substantially outperformed my forecast for an increase of 190,000, rising by 223,000.  April payrolls were revised down to 159,000 from 164,000 and the March numbers were revised up to 155,000 from 135,000. Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 179,000 per month.

PAYROLLS

May private sector payrolls increased by 218,000. April private sector payrolls were revised down to 162,000 from 168,000 and the March numbers were revised up to 153,000 from 135,000.

The employment report for May fits within the context of a strengthening economy and it also fits within the Federal Reserve’s context of seeing an improving economy that validates further gradual increases in the fed funds rate.  The takeaway from the May employment report is that it still had a Goldilocks hue to it, having been accented with strong job growth and only moderate wage inflation.

The national Unemployment Rate dropped from 3.9% to 3.8%. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 19.4% of the unemployed versus 20% in April. The U-6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, dropped to 7.6% versus 7.8% in April.  The labor force participation rate was 62.7% in May, versus 62.8% in April.

U RATE

Of note is that the unemployment rate is so low it has only hit this level a few times in modern history. The last time was in the heat of the dot-com bubble in 2000. But before that you have to go back to the late 1960’s to find a time the unemployment rate was lower.

That said, to many Americans, the economy still feels pretty ho-hum as they are not getting that much more money in their paychecks. Wages in May were up 2.7% percent from a year ago, roughly in line with gains seen in recent months but also not outpacing inflation.

U.S. Construction Spending in April rose by 1.8% – I had forecast a more modest increase of 1.0%.

CON SPEND

The April report featured a 2.8% increase in total private construction spending with total public construction spending was down 1.3%. Public construction spending was held down by a 1.4% decline in non-residential spending, which featured a 1% decline in highway and street spending.

Private construction spending growth was driven by a 4.5% increase in residential spending, which was led by multi-family building. Non-residential spending was up 0.8%, as a 2.4% increase in power spending was offset in part by a 2.8% decline in commercial spending.

On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 7.6%, with public construction spending up 7.7% and private construction spending up 7.6%.

The takeaway from this report is that it showed a welcome pickup in construction spending growth, which will be a source of support for Q-2 GDP forecasts.

What to Watch for This Week

Just one major announcement this week.  Consumer Credit rose by $11.6B in March and I expect to see the April figure show further expansion of $13.9B.

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